We closely track registration data which indicates the fleet size of a country. This gives a good idea as to the size of each market and highlights various trends in the industry. By and large, registration data is an easily available, if not perfect, proxy to the health of the aviation industry in that country.
Worldwide Fleet
Using this proxy, there are a few standout points. The first is the difference between the health of the industry in the USA and in Europe. We have not shown a graph here but since 2017, the USA registered fleet has grown by 26% to 16,480 jets, while during the same time the fleet in Europe has grown by 3% to 2,417 jets. Keep in mind that with these numbers the basis is very important as it represents a growth of 3,361 USA aircraft, while Europe’s is a total of 79 aircraft. The USA private jet fleet is 8x the size of the European one. It is an astonishing statement as to the size of the market and its growth. The curious part is that the population of the EU is larger than the USA, and the GDP of the EU, while smaller than the USA, is the second highest in the world. These two factors would suggest a larger private jet market than currently exists in Europe.
There are many factors that could be at play here. Europe has a better connected and much lower cost commercial transport network than the USA, providing an alternative solution for many travellers. There is also a much larger private aviation ecosystem in the USA to support owners in maintenance, pilot training, parts supply, etc., providing more competition and ultimately lower costs for USA-based owners. Additionally, the USA has less restrictions at airports in relation to reserving landing and take-off slots – something ubiquitous in Europe but the exception in the USA. Freedom of setting your travel schedule is one of the main benefits of private aviation, and when or if this is restricted by the ‘slot system’ then travel by private jet starts to lose its appeal.
European Fleet
Another interesting conclusion from our proxy barometer of aviation health is the very poor industry health of the United Kingdom. Since 2017, the size of the UK registered fleet has dropped in half. From Colibri’s own experience, much of this is due to owners deciding to leave ownership all together for a variety of reasons. But another large reason is the exodus of owners from a post-Brexit UK register to an EASA register that allows for a much easier operational environment for pilots, maintenance and parts. It’s a hard loss for the UK aviation industry with nothing on the horizon to change this trend in the coming years.
For some good news – two countries who have been incredibly successful in attracting new aircraft to their registers are San Marino (T7 reg) and Malta (9H reg).
Both have made it a policy to be extremely user-friendly. Malta is an EASA member state and a member of the EU, and therefore is a popular way to be on an EASA charter certificate with more user-friendly governance. San Marino is non-EASA and non -EU, but provides the ability for charter on its register, unlike the Isle of Man which is private operations only. As a result – San Marino’s growth has largely matched the declining numbers of the Isle of Man.
San Marino has been especially successful in the international sphere – where many buyers from smaller nations without the infrastructure to regulate private jets opt for the San Marino register. T7 aircraft are truly worldwide, their popularity stemming from its willingness to accept many recognized pilots’ licenses for its own, and its ease of sourcing maintenance services, among other things. There is a lesson to be learned here by the other national registers – owners have a choice and respond well to customer-centric policies.
Isle of Man / San Marino Fleet
Zooming out to the overall active private jet fleet, it shrunk in 2024 for the first time in 5 years. We attribute this to the overall declining prices in older aircraft which have made selling older aircraft for their parts economically reasonable. In the 2021 – 2023 years, prices of aircraft of all ages rose significantly. It suddenly became economically rational to undertake heavy airframe and engine maintenance to keep older aircraft flying when looked at in relation to the aircraft’s value. But as values are now declining, especially for older aircraft, it no longer makes sense to spend 1+ million USD to do maintenance on an aircraft that may only be worth 1.5 million once that work is complete. As a result, more aircraft are being sold for parts. We expect this trend to grow – for 3 years almost no aircraft went to the scrap yards due to their higher values. Many aircraft that likely should have been scrapped were not. There is a back log of supply for the parts yards coming, so we expect many more to head that way in the next two years.
– This article is taken from Fly-By Newsletter Issue 25.